Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
