Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Observers say the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the freedoms of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the election under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, adding that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it difficult to predict a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in exile.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for negotiations to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".